New Fortress Energy recently announced it filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy. For RapidRatings clients, this didn’t come as a surprise.
We've been tracking New Fortress's financial deterioration for years. In fact, the company's financial health, as shown through the FHR, started slipping well before bankruptcy concerns became public.
The FHR Caught the Risk
As of their March 31, 2026, financials, New Fortress carries an FHR of 15 out of 100, placing it firmly in the Very High Risk category.
New Fortress’ decline started through 2024 when its FHR first dropped four points in Q1, moving it from Low Risk to Medium Risk. Another 11-point drop in Q2 2024 and an 8-point drop in Q3 2024 moved New Fortress into High Risk. It ended the year with another 6-point drop in Q4 2024. Add that all up and New Fortress had a 29-point decline in a single year. Dropping from 62 (Low Risk) to 33 (High Risk).
However, New Fortress’ auditor didn’t issue a going concern warning until its December 31, 2024, financials, which weren’t filed until June 30, 2025. And Moody’s didn’t start downgrading New Fortress until November 2024
That matters because the FHR isn't just a snapshot of where a company stands today. It's an early warning indicator of where it's headed.
Looking at companies that filed for bankruptcy in 2025, 88% had a High Risk or Very High Risk FHR at the time of default. The average FHR at default was 27. Twelve months prior to default: 30. Thirty-six months prior: 40.
New Fortress followed a similar path.
Why Financial Health Matters
When people hear "bankruptcy risk," they often think about whether a company will survive.
But for risk managers, the bigger concern is usually what happens before a bankruptcy filing.
As financial health weakens, companies become less reliable. They cut costs, delay investments, and operate with less flexibility. Those pressures can show up in missed deliveries, quality issues, cybersecurity gaps, maintenance problems, and other operational disruptions.
Our studies have shown that companies with weak financial health are 2.0x more likely to have issues with quality and 2.6x more likely to have issues with delivery. Both of which can lead to costly disruptions to their customers’ operations.
In other words, financial deterioration doesn't just create bankruptcy risk, it creates business risk.
How Did We Get Here?
The numbers tell the story.
Since 2020, New Fortress's total debt has grown from roughly $1.2 billion to $8.9 billion.
Since the end of 2022, the company has burned through approximately $590 million in cash. As of March 2026, it had just $90 million remaining while facing nearly $7.2 billion in debt maturities over the next twelve months.
At the same time, revenue has fallen by more than $1.1 billion from 2022 levels, and both operating profit and cash flow from operations turned negative in 2025.
None of these developments happened overnight. They built over time, and the FHR reflected that deterioration as it occurred.
What Risk Managers Should Do Today
New Fortress is a reminder that waiting for headlines is not a risk strategy.
By the time bankruptcy rumors emerge, credit agencies react, or payment issues surface, the underlying financial problems have often been developing for years.
That's why it's critical to look beyond lagging indicators and understand the financial fundamentals of your suppliers, vendors, and partners.
Companies don't wake up one morning and become distressed. The warning signs are usually there long in the financial statements before the disruption arrives.
The question is whether you're looking at the right data to see them.
For RapidRatings clients, New Fortress's decline wasn't hidden. The FHR identified the increasing risk profile well before the company found itself in today's position.
When financial health deteriorates, operational problems often follow. Understanding that connection is one of the most effective ways to stay ahead of supplier risk.
